It's more believable that BlueSky can do well at this point given that they appear to have actually gotten the cash from Twitter while being set up as an independent org, and have hired a pretty impressive set of engineers. (I'm not involved in that org, but we do talk sometimes.) Time will tell what happens with it though.
@henshaw @cwebber @Gargron i'm no expert and i have only read their ADX Architecture Overview (https://github.com/bluesky-social/adx/blob/main/architecture.md) so far but it seems sensible, although there is still a lot of important stuff that is left unspecified (e.g., how does the DID Consortium work, both technically and organizationally?); and from i have seen, there are lots of potentially useful features (private posts, reply permission policies, etc.) that seem entirely out of scope
the main benefit seem to be efficient syncing of your complete history and the ability to seamlessly move your social graph and your contents from a provider to another (but would provider accept gigabytes-worth of your social media posting history just like that? and what if there is something in it that they object to? would they ask you to remove it and recompact your history before submitting again?)
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